MODELING IN TIME SERIES FOR ESTIMATING MAXIMUM DAILY PRECIPITATION IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF SANTO BENTO DO UNA (PERNAMBUCO-BRAZIL)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47820/recima21.v3i2.1164Keywords:
propose a time series modeling to estimate the maximumAbstract
This work aims to propose a time series modeling to estimate the maximum daily precipitation in a municipality in the interior of Pernambuco. The objective is also to estimate the maximum daily precipitation for the region in the return times of 2, 5, 10, 50, 100 and 1000 years. The work was carried out in the municipality of São Bento do Una (Pernambuco, Brazil). For the modeling, pluviometric data extracted from the Instituto de Meterologia data platform were used, which were fitted in the normal, log-normal, gamma, Weibull and Gumbel probability distribution functions. To assess whether the calculated distributions fit the probability distribution functions tested, the Kolmogorv-Smirnov test was performed. To estimate the maximum daily precipitation considering different return times, equations recognized in the literature were used. The results show that the Weibull and Gumbel distributions provided a better fit than the normal, log-normal and gamma distributions. The difference in terms of return period and related precipitation is notable for each of the five distributions tested and higher values of maximum daily precipitation are observed in the longer return periods, especially in the log-normal distribution.
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