ECOEPIDEMIOLOGY: ASSOCIATION BETWEEN CLIMATIC VARIABLES AND DENGUE OCCURRENCE IN TEIXEIRA DE FREITAS, BAHIA, BRAZIL (2016–2025)
Abstract
Dengue is an arbovirus of great public health relevance whose transmission dynamics are strongly associated with climatic factors, especially rainfall and temperature, which influence the development of the Aedes aegypti vector. This ecological time-series study aimed to analyze the association between climate variables (rainfall and temperature) and dengue occurrence in the municipality of Teixeira de Freitas, Bahia. Monthly data on notified dengue cases obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN/DATASUS) were used, alongside meteorological data on rainfall and temperature from the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) and the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), establishing the month as the temporal unit of analysis. Considering the interval between favorable environmental conditions and the recording of cases, one- and two-month time lags were applied to the rainfall variable. To account for the overdispersion of the disease count data, the statistical analysis was performed in R software using a negative binomial regression model. The results indicated a significant positive association between rainfall with a two-month lag and dengue occurrence (IRR = 1.003; 95% CI: 1.000–1.006; p = 0.0034), while the one-month lag showed a borderline association (p ≈ 0.05). These findings demonstrate that rainfall exerts a relevant influence on the dynamics of the disease, providing evidence to support municipal-level epidemiological surveillance strategies and preventive actions.
Author Biographies
Undergraduate Student in Biomedical Sciences, Federal University of Southern Bahia (UFSB).
Undergraduate Student in Biomedical Sciences, Federal University of Southern Bahia (UFSB).
Undergraduate Student in Civil Engineering, Federal University of Southern Bahia (UFSB).
PhD in Plant Biotechnology, Faculty Member at the Center for Health Sciences Education, Federal University of Southern Bahia (UFSB).
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