PROTEA-M: MARCO MULTIMODAL PARA LA COMUNICACIÓN INCLUSIVA EN SITUACIONES DE INUNDACIÓN

Resumen

Los sistemas de alerta temprana constituyen la principal herramienta para la notificación y orientación de la población en situaciones de emergencia; sin embargo, aún utilizan mensajes estandarizados que no consideran diferencias cognitivas y comunicativas. Esta limitación afecta directamente a las personas con Trastorno del Espectro Autista, que requieren formas estructuradas y predecibles de organización de la información para la comprensión y la toma de decisiones en contextos de riesgo. Este trabajo presenta el framework PROTEA-M (Program for Readiness and Organized Training in Emergencies for Autistic Individuals - Multimodal), un modelo predictivo-generativo multimodal orientado a la producción de contenidos inclusivos para la preparación en escenarios de inundación. El modelo estima el perfil comunicativo y el plan de intervención y, a partir de esta estimación, genera Historias Sociales personalizadas. El módulo predictivo utiliza un ensemble de Extreme Learning Machines con fusión de evidencias y calibración probabilística, presentando un rendimiento superior a los baselines, con una precisión de 0.6923 y ROC-AUC de 0.9782, además de una mejor calidad probabilística. El módulo generativo produce narrativas multimodales mediante modelos de lenguaje, traduciendo variables clínicas en secuencias visuales y textuales organizadas. PROTEA-M contribuye a la evolución de los sistemas de alerta al incorporar personalización comunicativa y accesibilidad cognitiva.

Biografía del autor/a

Danilo Monteiro Souza, Escuela Politécnica de la Universidad de Pernambuco

Desarrollador móvil Flutter, especializado en diseño responsivo e integración de aplicaciones mediante API REST. Licenciado en Ingeniería de Computación por la Universidade Paulista y Magíster en Ingeniería de Computación por la Universidad de Pernambuco. Certificado como Professional Scrum Master por Scrum.org y como Flutter Developer por AndroidATC.

Sérgio Murilo Maciel Fernandes, Escuela Politécnica de la Universidad de Pernambuco

Graduado en Ingeniería Eléctrica por la Universidad Federal de Pernambuco (1978), Magíster en Ingeniería Eléctrica por la Universidad Federal de Pernambuco (1995) y Doctor en Ciencias de la Computación por el Centro de Informática de la Universidad Federal de Pernambuco (2007). Profesor Adjunto II de la Universidad Católica de Pernambuco y de la Escuela Politécnica de la Universidad de Pernambuco.

Referencias

ABDULLAH, Maria et al. Artificial intelligence-based assistive technologies for autism spectrum disorder: a systematic review. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, v. 52, n. 9, p. 4029-4050, 2022.

AHMED, S. et al. An optimized Kernel Extreme Learning Machine for the classification of the autism spectrum disorder by using gaze tracking images. Applied Soft Computing, v. 120, p. 108654, 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asoc.2022.108654

BALOG-WAY, Dominic H. P.; MCCOMAS, Katherine A.; BESLEY, John C. The evolving field of risk communication. Risk Analysis, v. 40, n. S1, p. 2240-2262, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13615

BASHER, Reid. Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, v. 364, n. 1845, p. 2167-2182, 2006. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2006.1819

BEUKELMAN, David R.; MIRENDA, Pat. Augmentative and alternative communication: supporting children and adults with complex communication needs. 4. ed. Baltimore: Paul H. Brookes Publishing, 2013.

BOGDASHINA, Olga. Sensory perceptual issues in autism and Asperger syndrome: different sensory experiences, different perceptual worlds. 2. ed. London: Jessica Kingsley Publishers, 2016.

BREIMAN, Leo. Random forests. Machine Learning, v. 45, n. 1, p. 5-32, 2001. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1010933404324

BRIER, Glenn W. Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probability. Monthly Weather Review, v. 78, n. 1, p. 1-3, 1950. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078<0001:VOFEIT>2.0.CO;2

BROWN, Tom et al. Language models are few-shot learners. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, v. 33, p. 1877-1901, 2020.

CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION (CDC). Data and statistics on autism spectrum disorder. Atlanta: CDC, 2023. Disponível em: https://www.cdc.gov/autism/data-research/index.html Acesso em: 25 maio 2026.

CERDA, Patricio; VAROQUAUX, Gaël; KÉGL, Balázs. Similarity encoding for learning with dirty categorical variables. Machine Learning, v. 107, p. 1477-1494, 2018. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10994-018-5724-2

COHEN, Jacob. A coefficient of agreement for nominal scales. Educational and Psychological Measurement, v. 20, n. 1, p. 37-46, 1960. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/001316446002000104

CORTES, Corinna; VAPNIK, Vladimir. Support-vector networks. Machine Learning, v. 20, p. 273-297, 1995. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00994018

COVER, Thomas; HART, Peter. Nearest neighbor pattern classification. IEEE Transactions on Information Theory, v. 13, n. 1, p. 21-27, 1967. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/TIT.1967.1053964

DIETTERICH, Thomas G. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In: MULTIPLE CLASSIFIER SYSTEMS. Berlin: Springer, 2000. p. 1-15. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-45014-9_1

ELDAWLATLY, Abdelazeem. Writing the methods section. Saudi Journal of Anaesthesia, v. 13, supl. 1, p. S10-S11, 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4103/sja.SJA_685_18

FAWCETT, Tom. An introduction to ROC analysis. Pattern Recognition Letters, v. 27, n. 8, p. 861-874, 2006. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.patrec.2005.10.010

FAYYAD, Usama; PIATETSKY-SHAPIRO, Gregory; SMYTH, Padhraic. From data mining to knowledge discovery in databases. AI Magazine, v. 17, n. 3, p. 37-54, 1996. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1609/aimag.v17i3.1230

FENG, Yi et al. SS-GEN: a social story generation framework with large language models. In: Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. v. 39, n. 2, p. 1300-1308, 2025.

FRITH, Uta. Autism: explaining the enigma. Oxford: Blackwell, 2003.

GRAY, Carol. The new social story book. 10. ed. Arlington: Future Horizons, 2010.

GUO, Chuan et al. On calibration of modern neural networks. In: International Conference on Machine Learning. [S.l.]: PMLR, 2017. p. 1321-1330.

HASTIE, Trevor; TIBSHIRANI, Robert; FRIEDMAN, Jerome. The elements of statistical learning. 2. ed. New York: Springer, 2009.

HOERL, Arthur E.; KENNARD, Robert W. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics, v. 12, n. 1, p. 55-67, 1970. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00401706.1970.10488634

HUANG, Guang-Bin; ZHU, Qin-Yu; SIEW, Chee-Kheong. Extreme learning machine: theory and applications. Neurocomputing, v. 70, n. 1-3, p. 489-501, 2006. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2005.12.126

INSTITUTO BRASILEIRO DE GEOGRAFIA E ESTATÍSTICA (IBGE). Censo Demográfico 2022. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, 2022. Disponível em: https://www.ibge.gov.br Acesso em: 25 maio 2026.

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC). Climate change 2023: synthesis report. Geneva: IPCC, 2023. Disponível em: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/ Acesso em: 25 maio 2026.

KENT, Rachel et al. Preparing for emergencies among families of children with autism spectrum disorder. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, v. 43, n. 3, p. 666-675, 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803-012-1618-0

KOHAVI, Ron. A study of cross-validation and bootstrap for accuracy estimation and model selection. In: International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence. San Francisco: Morgan Kaufmann, 1995. p. 1137-1145.

KOHONEN, Teuvo. Self-organizing maps. 3. ed. Berlin: Springer, 2001.

KOKINA, Anastasia; KERN, Lee. Social story interventions for students with autism spectrum disorders: a meta-analysis. Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, v. 40, n. 7, p. 812-826, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10803-009-0931-0

LINDELL, Michael K.; PERRY, Ronald W. The protective action decision model: theoretical modifications and additional evidence. Risk Analysis, v. 32, n. 4, p. 616-632, 2012. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01647.x

LUNDGREN, Regina E.; MCMAKIN, Andrea H. Risk communication: a handbook for communicating environmental, safety, and health risks. 6. ed. Hoboken: Wiley, 2018.

LUNDBERG, Scott M.; LEE, Su-In. A unified approach to interpreting model predictions. In: Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2017.

MICCI-BARRECA, Daniele. A preprocessing scheme for high-cardinality categorical attributes in classification and prediction problems. ACM SIGKDD Explorations Newsletter, v. 3, n. 1, p. 27-32, 2001. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1145/507533.507538

MILETI, Dennis S.; SORENSEN, John H. Communication of emergency public warnings. Oak Ridge: ORNL, 1990.

NAEINI, Mahdi Pakdaman; COOPER, Gregory; HAUSKRECHT, Milos. Obtaining well calibrated probabilities using Bayesian binning. In: AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence. 2015. p. 2901-2907.

PEEK, Lori; STOUGH, Laura. Children with disabilities in the context of disaster: a social vulnerability perspective. Child Development, v. 81, n. 4, p. 1260-1270, 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8624.2010.01466.x

QUINLAN, J. Ross. Induction of decision trees. Machine Learning, v. 1, p. 81-106, 1986. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00116251

REIMERS, Nils; GUREVYCH, Iryna. Sentence-BERT: sentence embeddings using Siamese BERT-networks. In: Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing. Hong Kong: ACL, 2019. p. 3982-3992. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18653/v1/D19-1410

ROBERTSON, Caroline E.; BARON-COHEN, Simon. Sensory perception in autism. Nature Reviews Neuroscience, v. 18, n. 11, p. 671-684, 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nrn.2017.112

ROWLAND, Charity. Matriz de Comunicação. Portland: Oregon Health & Science University, 2011.

RUTHERFORD, Marion et al. Visual supports at home and in the community for autistic children: a scoping review. Autism, v. 24, n. 7, p. 1737-1752, 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1362361320901572

SAITO, Takaya; REHMSMEIER, Marc. The precision-recall plot is more informative than the ROC plot when evaluating binary classifiers on imbalanced datasets. PLOS ONE, v. 10, n. 3, e0118432, 2015. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118432

SHAH, Ashfaq Ahmad et al. Community social barriers to non-technical aspects of flood early warning systems and NGO-led interventions: the case of Pakistan. Frontiers in Earth Science, v. 11, p. 1068721, 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2023.1068721

STOUGH, Laura M.; KELMAN, Ilan. People with disabilities and disasters. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018.

SUTTON, Jeannette; TIERNEY, Kathleen. Disaster preparedness: concepts, guidance, and research. Boulder: University of Colorado, 2006.

TEST, David W. et al. Evidence-based practices for individuals with autism. Exceptional Children, v. 78, n. 2, p. 135-155, 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/001440291107800201

UNITED NATIONS CHILDREN'S FUND (UNICEF). Disability-inclusive disaster risk reduction. New York: UNICEF, 2023.

UNITED NATIONS OFFICE FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (UNDRR). Global assessment report on disaster risk reduction 2022. Geneva: UN, 2022.

UNITED NATIONS OFFICE FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION (UNDRR). Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015-2030. Geneva: UN, 2015.

VARMA, Sudhir; SIMON, Richard. Bias in error estimation when using cross-validation for model selection. BMC Bioinformatics, v. 7, n. 91, 2006. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2105-7-91

VASWANI, Ashish et al. Attention is all you need. Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, v. 30, 2017.

WORLD BANK. Inclusive early warning systems: a lifeline for all. Washington: World Bank, 2022.

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION (WMO). State of the global climate 2021. Geneva: WMO, 2021.

Cómo citar

Souza, D. M., & Fernandes, S. M. M. (2026). PROTEA-M: MARCO MULTIMODAL PARA LA COMUNICACIÓN INCLUSIVA EN SITUACIONES DE INUNDACIÓN. RECIMA21 - Revista Científica Multidisciplinar - ISSN 2675-6218, 7(7), e778278. https://doi.org/10.47820/recima21.v7i7.8278